Transparency First

Signal Performance

Understanding how we measure, track, and report the performance of our trading signals with complete transparency.

Important Disclaimer

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading signals are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. The performance metrics shown represent historical data and should not be interpreted as a guarantee or prediction of future performance.

Key Performance Metrics

We track multiple metrics to provide a comprehensive view of signal performance. Each metric offers different insights into trading effectiveness and risk management.

Win Rate Primary Metric
68%

Percentage of signals that reached at least one take-profit target before hitting stop-loss. Calculated across all closed positions.

Risk-Reward Ratio Risk Metric
1:2.4

Average ratio between potential loss (stop-loss distance) and potential gain (take-profit targets). Higher is better for long-term profitability.

Max Drawdown Risk Metric
-18%

Largest peak-to-trough decline in cumulative performance. Represents the worst-case historical scenario for following all signals.

Profit Factor Efficiency
1.82

Ratio of gross profit to gross loss. A factor above 1.0 indicates net profitability; above 1.5 is considered strong.

How We Calculate Metrics

Transparency in methodology is essential for trust. Here's exactly how each key metric is calculated:

Win Rate Calculation

A signal is counted as a "win" if it reaches TP1 (first take-profit) before being stopped out. Signals that hit stop-loss first are counted as losses. Break-even exits are excluded from win/loss calculations.

Risk-Reward Methodology

We measure the distance from entry to stop-loss (risk) versus entry to average TP (reward). The ratio is weighted by allocation percentages across TP1, TP2, and TP3 targets.

Drawdown Tracking

Drawdown is calculated by tracking cumulative performance and measuring the decline from each new high to subsequent lows. Maximum drawdown represents the largest such decline historically.

Profit Factor Formula

Total profits from all winning trades divided by total losses from all losing trades. This metric shows how much profit is generated per unit of loss.

Win Rate Formula
Win Rate = (Signals reaching TP1 ÷ Total Closed Signals) × 100%
Profit Factor Formula
Profit Factor = Σ(Winning Trades) ÷ |Σ(Losing Trades)|

Performance Tracking Process

Every signal follows a rigorous tracking process from publication to final outcome recording.

Signal Publication

Signal is published with timestamp, entry zone, all TP levels, and stop-loss. Entry price is recorded at publication time.

Entry Confirmation

When price enters the designated entry zone, the signal status changes to "Active" and tracking begins.

Target Monitoring

System continuously monitors for TP hits or stop-loss triggers. Each TP hit is recorded with exact timestamp and price.

Position Closure

Signal closes when either all TPs are hit, stop-loss is triggered, or signal is manually invalidated. Final P&L is calculated.

Performance Recording

Complete trade data is permanently recorded including entry, exit, duration, and percentage gain/loss for historical analysis.

Why Past Performance Doesn't Guarantee Future Results

Critical Understanding

This is not just a legal disclaimer—it's a fundamental truth about trading. Here's why historical performance cannot predict future outcomes:

  • Market Conditions Change: Volatility, liquidity, and trend characteristics evolve constantly
  • Strategy Decay: Profitable patterns become less effective as more traders exploit them
  • Black Swan Events: Unprecedented events can invalidate historical assumptions
  • Overfitting Risk: Strategies optimized for past data may fail in new conditions
  • Sample Size Limitations: Even extensive track records may not capture all market scenarios
  • Survivorship Bias: Only successful signals/periods tend to be highlighted

Markets are complex adaptive systems where participant behavior constantly evolves. What worked yesterday may not work tomorrow, and historical win rates provide no guarantee of future profitability. Always trade with capital you can afford to lose.

What We Show vs. What We Don't

Transparency means being clear about both our successes and limitations.

What We Show What We Don't Hide
All closed signals (wins AND losses) Losing streaks and drawdown periods
Actual entry and exit prices Signals that never reached entry zone
Complete performance history Periods of underperformance
Risk metrics (drawdown, volatility) Maximum loss scenarios
Time-weighted returns Performance during adverse markets

No Cherry-Picking

We publish ALL signals and track ALL outcomes. You won't find us showcasing only our best trades while hiding the losses. Every signal is recorded, tracked, and included in our performance calculations.

Our Transparency Principles

We believe in radical transparency. Here are the principles that guide our performance reporting:

Complete Record Keeping

Every signal is permanently recorded with timestamp. We cannot modify or delete historical signals after publication.

Realistic Assumptions

Performance is calculated using achievable entry prices, not best-case scenarios. We account for typical slippage and execution realities.

Multiple Timeframes

We show performance across different periods (7d, 30d, 90d, all-time) so you can see consistency, not just cherry-picked windows.

Risk-Adjusted Reporting

We emphasize risk metrics alongside returns. A 50% return means nothing without understanding the drawdown required to achieve it.

No Unrealistic Claims

We never guarantee profits or promise specific returns. Anyone who does is likely misleading you.

Clear Disclaimers

Risk warnings are prominently displayed, not buried in fine print. We want you to understand the risks before trading.

Why Your Results May Vary

Even if you follow our signals exactly, your results will differ from published performance due to:

Execution Timing

You may enter at different prices within the entry zone. A few percentage points difference in entry can significantly impact returns.

Exchange Differences

Prices vary slightly between exchanges. Your exchange's fees, spreads, and liquidity affect actual execution.

Position Sizing

How you size positions relative to your portfolio dramatically affects overall returns and risk exposure.

Leverage Choices

Your leverage settings multiply both gains and losses differently than our standardized calculations.

View Live Performance

Explore our complete signal history and real-time performance metrics with full transparency.